WHERE THINGS STAND, MAYBE:  One poll we follow closely is the generic ballot polled by Rasmussen.  Rasmussen polls more often than anyone else, and the generic ballot ("Which party do you prefer, Democrat or Republican?") is polled once a week.

Rasmussen's generic polls this year have consistently showed a Republican lead, but the amount has varied dramatically.  It was as high as 10 points earlier in the year before going on a long decline, reaching one point last week.  Today the Republican lead in Rasmussen stood at two points.  All that means is that the election will probably be close, but exactness cannot be predicted.

The general sense among pollsters that we consult is that the Republicans will probably take the House, but by a smaller margin than thought six months ago, and that the Democrats have a very good chance of holding on to the Senate, if only by a few seats. 

These predictions are of little significance, but they're fun.  Some event between now and the election can disrupt everything.  What if the president dies?  What if the Republicans show signs of life?

These are midterms.  There are local factors, personalities, and issues that are difficult to poll.  What you really need in these circumstances is the old, worn, grumpy news reporter or editor who knows every block, and has a name for every streetlight.  There used to be a guy like that at NBC Chicago named Len O'Connor, who looked like he changed his shirt once a month and got most of his tips from fellas behind bars.   But I'd listen to him faster than some electric-shaved worthy with a Harvard degree. 

Read Salena Zito.  She knows.

September 23-24, 2022